Nazari kan jihohin da jam'iyyar APC za ta iya rasawa a zaben 2019

Bayan kammala zaben fitar da gwani na kujerun shugaban kasa, gwamnoni, yan majalisun dokoki dana tarayya, Jam'iyyar APC na ci gaba da fuskantar rikicin siyasa na cikin gida, musamman ganin yadda wasu yan takara da masu ruwa da tsaki a jam'iyyar ke tayar da bori gabanin zaben 2019 da za a gudanar nan da watanni 4.

Jam'iyya mai mulki ra APC na ci gaba da fuskantar rikicin cikin gida, tare da yiyuwar rasa wasu manyan jihohi a zaben gwamnoni na 2019 da ke gabatowa, wanda hakan ba zai ma jam'iyyae sauki ba kamar yadda suka samu nasara a zaben 2015.

Yadda wasu mambobi da yan yakara suka fara tayar da jijiyoyin wuya, bayan kammala zaben fitar da gwanin, ya nuna yadda aka samu kura kurai a zaben, wanda kuma ya tilasta wasu sauya sheka daga jam'iyyar zuwa wasu jam'iyyu don sama ma kawunansu gindin zama da dorewar siyasar su.

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1. Yadda Legas za ta kubuce daga hannun APC

A jihar Legas, har yanzu ana ci gaba da nazari, tare da cirewa APC tsammanin sake shugabanci a jihar. Duk da cewa tun a 1998 jihar Legas ke karkashin iko manyan shuwagabannin jam'iyyar na kasa kamar su Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, sai dai masu fashin baki kan siyasa na ganin cewa jam'iyyar bata dauki matakan lashe zaben kujerar gwamnan jihar a 2019 ba.

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Babban kalubalen da jihar za ta fuskanta shine juyin baya daga magoya bayan gwamnan jihar na yanzu Akinwunmi Ambode, wanda jam'iyyar ta hana tikitin tazarce. Akwai zargin cewa gwamnan na aiki a sirrance da wata babbar jam'iyyar hamayya don lallasa jam'iyyarsa ta APC. Idan har hakan ta tabbata, to masana na ganin cewa APC za ta iya rasa jihar Legas.

2. Matakan Amosun zai iya shafar APC a jihar Ogun

Masu kwakwaf kan sha'anin siyasar sa ke wakana a jihar Ogun, musamman wainar da APC ke toyawa, na ganin cewa zai zama abu mai matukar wahala ga jam'iyyar ta sake lashe kujerar gwamnan jihar, wasu ma na ganin cewa sam jam'iyyar bata da tsumi ko sauran dabara.

Rikicin da ya kunno kai, na kasancewar Adekunle Akonlade a matsayin dan takarar da gwamna mai barin gado ya tsaida, Ibikunle Amosun da kuma Dapo Abiodun, ya rikitar da magoya bayan jam'iyyar akan wanda ke da tikitin takarar a hannunsa. Sai dai, Abiodun wanda ke da daurin gindi daga manyan jam'iyyar na jihar dama na kasar, ya samu tikiti ne daga kwamitin gudanarwa na jam'iyyar. Duk da haka Amosun ya dage kan lallao Akinlade ne dan takarar APC na kujerar gwamnan jihar a 2019.

Haka zalika, yan takara daga wasu jam'iyyu, kamar Isiaka, dan takarar kujerar gwamnan jihar har a karo na 2, yanzu kuma ya samu tikitin takara a jam'iyyar ADC, akwai babbar alama ta cewar shine zai iya lashe zaben gwamnan jihar ganin cewa shi ne yazo na 2 a zaben da ya gabata. Shima Dimeji Bonke daga jam'iyyar ADP da kuma Ladi Adebutu daga PDP sun shirya tsaf don kwace mulki daga APC a 2019.

3. Ajimobi na iya rasa damarsa a jihar Oyo

Yadda aka gudanar da zaben fitar da gwani na jam'iyyar APC a jihar Oyo, na iya shafar nasarar jam'iyyar a babban zabe mai zuwa. Cire tsohon gwamnan jihar, Chief Adebayo Alao-Akala daga yan takarar da kuma sauya shekarsa zuwa ADP don yin takarar gwamnan na iya zama barazana ga APC.

Bayan Akala, dan takarar jam'iyyar, Chief Nyi Akintola, wanda shima ya bayyana cewa ya tsame hannunsa daga daukar bangaranc a siyasa kan yadda aka gudanar da zabe, ya janyo ficewar wasu daga jam'iyyar kamar sanata Monsuratu Sumonu, sanata Soji Akanbi, yan majalisun tarayya 14 da kuma wasu yan majalisun dokoki na jihar da dama zuwa wasu jam'iyyun.

A 2015, Ajimobi ya kayar da sauran yan takarar da kusan kashi 35 na kuri'un da aka kada, wanda ake ganin zai yi masa matukar wuya ya sake samun wannan damsr a 2019 dub da yadda kowa ya kwallafa rai a kan shiga gidan gwamnatin jihar.

4. Halayen da El-Rufai ke nunawa na iya hana APC samun nasara a jihar Kaduna

Shige da ficen El-Rufai ya tilasta Sanata Shehu Sani sauya sheka daga APC zuwa PRP, kafin ficewar Shehu Sani, Sanata Suleiman Hunkuyi ya fice zuwa PDP. Wannan dabi'ar ta gwamna Nasir El-Rufai kan nuna kiyayyarsa ga wasu mambobin jam'iyyar na jihar, naniya sa APC ta rasa jihar a 2019.

A cewar mai fashin baki Tony James, PDP za ta iya lashe zaben jihar da zaran ta karkata hankalinta wajen dinke barakar da aka samu a kananan hukumomi 12 cikin 23 na jihar. Ya ce PDP za ta iya lashe kananan hukumomi 2 a cikin 8 na shiyya ta daya, musamman Makarfi, inda Tsohon gwamna Ahmed Makarfi da kuma Sanata Hunkuyi suka fito.

James ya ce Shiyya ta 2 mai dauke da kananan hukumomi 8, PDPna iya lashe 3 daga ciki. A shiyya ta 3 kuwa, PDP na iya sa,un nasara kasancewar yan majalisun wakilansu na tarayya ba a zabesu karkashin APC ba.

KARIN BAYANI:

Wannan kashi na daya ne, mai dauke da jihohi 4, a labarin mu na gaba, zamu wallafa kashi na biyun mai dauke da bayani kan jihohi 5, cikon na 9, da jam'iyyar APC za ta iya rasawa a babban zabe na 2019.

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